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Prospects for the silicone industry
Cost and Market Advantages The main raw materials for silicones are metal silicon powder and methyl chloride. China's silicone industry has important cost and resource advantages in these two important areas.
China is the world's major producer of metal silicon. At present, China's production capacity is around 770,000 tons / year. Since 2000, the annual industrial silicon production has reached more than 400,000 tons, accounting for about one-third of the world's total industrial silicon production, and the annual export volume exceeded 300,000 tons. The domestic metal silicon production capacity is huge and the market concentration is low, which is conducive to the development of China's organic silicon industry. At present, two major silicone producers, Xin'an and Xingxin Materials, have built more than 50,000 tons of metal silicon capacity in Sichuan and Lanzhou respectively, and are further increasing their production capacity.
As for methyl chloride, domestic methyl chloride resources are abundant and prices are stable. Both major silicone producers have basically achieved self-sufficiency in methyl chloride: Xin'an has adopted a unique "silicone-glyphosate" co-production technology to achieve the recycling of chlorine resources; Xingxin materials produce one by itself. Methyl chloride to meet the needs of silicone production.
The development of downstream industries has driven the demand for silicone upstream products to be strong. The consumption of silicone monomers is mainly concentrated in the fields of silicone rubber and silicone oil. China has the fastest growing silicone market in the world (the demand growth rate has remained above 25% in recent years). At present, silicones are facing rapid development opportunities in major application fields such as silicone rubber, silicone oil and silane coupling agents.
Silicone rubber: China's demand for specialty rubber will continue to be strong. Silicone rubber has good biocompatibility and can be processed into various profiles, hoses, strips, rubber rollers, tapes and other products, mainly used in construction, automotive, electronic appliances and medical beauty. At present, China's annual output of various types of rubber is more than 2 million tons, of which the annual output of natural rubber is 55-600,000 tons, and the annual output of synthetic rubber is about 1.5 million tons. It is estimated that the consumption of synthetic rubber in China will reach or exceed 2.5 million tons in 2005. Due to insufficient production, more than half need to rely on imports, especially high quality, special rubber. It is expected that rubber consumption in China will continue to grow for a long time in the future.
Silicone oil: Demand continues to grow with economic growth. There are many applications of silicone oil, among which the daily consumption of products is mostly, accounting for 30%-35% of the total consumption. This is followed by processing aids such as defoamers, mold release agents and surfactants. With the development of the national economy, the domestic demand for silicone oil is increasing. It is expected that the demand for domestic silicone oil will reach 60,000 tons in 2005, especially the proportion of high-grade silicone oil products will be greatly improved.
Silane coupling agent: Demand is growing rapidly with the expansion of fiberglass and radial tires. Silane coupling agent is mainly used to improve the mechanical properties of glass fiber. Its use in glass fiber accounts for about half of the total consumption of domestic silane coupling agent. Secondly, it is radial tire, accounting for more than 40%. The rest is used for coatings and other consumption. field. The glass fiber industry is in the growth stage in China, and its output is growing at a rate of more than 30% per year. As the meridian rate of China's automobile tires is gradually increasing, it is expected that with the continuous expansion of the production capacity of China's glass fiber and radial tires, silane coupling The demand for joint agents will continue to increase.
High profitability will be maintained globally, and high barriers to monomer production result in high concentration of capacity. In five years, China's monomer capacity concentration will remain high. At present, domestic organic silicon monomer production capacity is mainly concentrated in Xin'an, Xingxin Materials and Jilin Chemical, and other possible new entrants have little capacity in the future. The difficulty of producing silicone monomers will effectively prevent new entrants. The high gross profit level of domestic silicone monomer producers is expected to be maintained.
Anti-dumping will keep the import price of silicone intermediates high, and the domestic self-sufficiency rate is 33% in 2005.
In 2007, when the growth rate reached a low level of 46%, the high gross profit level of monomer manufacturers before 2007 is expected to be maintained. In the long run, domestic silicone monomer manufacturers can maintain product profitability by further increasing the selectivity of dimethyl, increasing the proportion of deep processing of products, broadening the types of deep-processed products and improving the level of resource recycling.
